China's New Carbon Metric Creates Significant Emissions Gap

Changes in Carbon Measurement

A major change in the methodology China uses to measure its core climate goals has resulted in a significant gap in emissions reporting. According to analysis by Carbon Brief, this shift in metrics has effectively left a gap in the nation's emissions data that is comparable in size to the total emissions of Germany.

Emissions Trends and Clean Energy

Despite these measurement discrepancies, recent data suggests a shift in China's overall emissions trajectory. Analysis indicates that growth in clean power generation has caused China's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to fall for the first time, even as power demand continued to grow rapidly. Specifically, emissions were down 1.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 and decreased by 1% over the latest 12-month period.

This trend has persisted over a longer duration, with CO2 emissions remaining "flat or falling" for 21 months starting in March 2024. In the final quarter of 2025, emissions fell by 1%, which likely secured a total decline of 0.3% for the full year.

Policy Goals and Carbon Intensity

Under its current five-year plan, China aims to cut the carbon intensity of its GDP by 17%. However, this intensity-based approach may allow for a continued increase in absolute emissions given the rate of GDP growth.

Global Context and External Impact