Climate Change Predicted to Increase Frequency of Large Hailstones

Increase in Severe Hail Events

A new study published in the journal Nature indicates that a warming world is likely to produce larger and more damaging hailstones. Researchers found that global storms producing hail larger than a large marble are projected to increase between 38% and 47% by the end of the century.

The extent of this increase depends on the volume of heat-trapping gases emitted into the atmosphere. Conversely, the study found that storms producing smaller hail are expected to shrink by 4% to 8%.

Atmospheric Drivers

The shift toward larger hailstones is attributed to climate change resulting from the burning of fossil fuels. According to the research, these emissions create more high-energy unstable air, which provides the necessary conditions for hail to form.

While hail generally does not result in human fatalities, the physical damage to property is significant. The study highlights that the increase in high-energy air directly contributes to the size and destructive potential of the stones pelting roofs, vehicles, and the ground.

Infrastructure and Economic Risk

The risk of damage is further compounded by human expansion into hail-prone regions. As more people, houses, solar farms, and general infrastructure are established in these areas, the potential for loss increases.

Ashley, a researcher cited in the reports, noted that while climate change increases the potential for larger hail in certain regions, future losses will also depend on human factors. Specifically, Ashley stated that the "future loss signal will also depend heavily on where people build, what they build, how resilient those structures are, and how land use changes".