Far-Right Candidate Abelardo de la Espriella Leads Colombia's First-Round Vote

First-Round Results

Abelardo de la Espriella, a far-right lawyer and admirer of Donald Trump, won the first round of Colombia’s presidential election on Sunday. With 99.9% of ballots counted, de la Espriella secured 43.7% of the vote, totaling just over 10.3 million votes.

Senator Iván Cepeda, a philosopher and human rights activist backed by left-wing President Gustavo Petro, finished in second place with 40.9% of the vote, or approximately 9.6 million votes. Because no candidate reached the absolute majority of more than 50% required to win outright, the race will proceed to a runoff election in three weeks.

Other candidates trailed significantly behind the top two. Paloma Valencia, representing the Democratic Center party founded by former President Álvaro Uribe, received 6.91% of the vote. Valencia, 46, was the first woman to win her party's nomination.

Candidate Profiles and Platforms

Abelardo de la Espriella is described as a right-wing outsider who has risen rapidly in the polls. During his campaign, the lawyer pledged to "smash" the cocaine-fueled armed groups that have expanded within the country. De la Espriella, 47, established his reputation and wealth by providing legal counsel to controversial clients, including the founder of a pyramid scheme that defrauded thousands of Colombians.

Iván Cepeda represents the left-wing Historic Pact coalition. He is a senator and philosopher who has the support of the current administration under President Gustavo Petro.

Political Context and Polling

The result is viewed as a blow to both the ruling leftist party and establishment conservatives. Prior to the vote, polling data showed varying projections. An Invamer survey conducted from May 13-20 had placed Cepeda in the lead with 44.6% support, while de la Espriella followed with 31.6%. Other polling firms, including CNC and Guarumo, had also indicated a likely runoff between the two candidates.

Conversely, prediction markets on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket had favored de la Espriella, giving him roughly 59% odds of ultimately winning the presidency compared to 40% for Cepeda.

Regional Implications

A victory for de la Espriella would align Colombia with a broader shift toward the right in Latin America. Currently, right- and center-right governments control several nations in the region, including Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, and Paraguay. Other right-wing candidates, such as Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil and Keiko Fujimori in Peru, are competing in presidential elections later this year.