Forest Carbon Protocols Underestimate Climate-Driven Loss Risks

Risks to Carbon Sequestration

A new study published in Nature indicates that forest carbon protocols significantly underestimate the risks of carbon loss driven by climate change. The research highlights that forests, which serve as vast networks of carbon reservoirs, are increasingly threatened by wildfires, droughts, and pests. These factors jeopardize the ability of forests to keep carbon sequestered from the atmosphere, where its presence disrupts Earth's climate systems.

Many corporate, national, and state climate policies rely on the capacity of forests to store carbon. This process is frequently tracked and funded through a system of "carbon credits," which are issued to polluting industries in exchange for the protection and restoration of forest lands. However, the study suggests that the reliability of these credits is under threat as climate-driven disturbances increase.

Failures in Buffer Pool Assumptions

To account for potential losses, carbon credit programs typically utilize a "buffer pool," which is intended to cover future carbon losses over long periods, often spanning 100 years. The researchers argue that the assumptions underlying these buffer pools may now be badly outdated.

William Anderegg, a biology professor at the University of Utah and senior author of the study, stated that "forests are facing increasing durability risks due to climate change". The study suggests that these programs may specifically underestimate long-term risks from wildfire and climate-driven tree die-offs, with a particular vulnerability noted in the American West.

Broader Climate Implications

While the study focuses on the protocols used for carbon credits, other research emphasizes the escalating danger of extreme fire events. A research team led by Professor Seung-Ki Min of the Department of Environmental Engineering warns that unless atmospheric carbon is reduced immediately, future summers will become hotter and wildfires more destructive.

Additionally, separate findings indicate that climate models may be missing massive carbon emissions from boreal wildfires. Researchers found that fires in boreal forests can burn deep into peat soils, releasing ancient carbon that has been stored for hundreds or thousands of years. These slow, smoldering fires may not be fully captured in climate models.