Forest Carbon Protocols Underestimate Climate-Driven Carbon Loss Risks

Risks to Carbon Reservoirs

Forests serve as extensive networks of carbon reservoirs that sequester carbon from the atmosphere, preventing it from disrupting Earth's climate systems. Many national, state, and corporate climate policies depend on the ability of these forests to store carbon. This sequestration is frequently tracked and funded through a system of "carbon credits," which are issued to polluting industries in exchange for the protection and restoration of forest lands.

However, a study published in Nature on May 20 indicates that current forest carbon protocols underestimate the risks of carbon loss driven by climate change. The research highlights that forests involved in carbon-credit programs face significant and increasing threats from climate-driven disturbances.

Primary Drivers of Carbon Loss

The study identifies several specific climate-driven disturbances that threaten the stability of forest carbon credits. Among the most prominent risks are wildfires, drought, and insect outbreaks. These events can lead to the rapid release of stored carbon back into the atmosphere, undermining the intended environmental benefits of the credits.

Researchers warn that climate risks such as wildfires and drought could weaken the overall integrity of forest carbon credit systems in the future. Specifically, the study suggests that these programs may be underestimating the long-term risks associated with climate-driven tree loss.

Implications for Carbon Markets

The findings raise critical questions regarding the accuracy of market-based investments designed to keep greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere. Because these credits are used by industries to offset their emissions, an underestimation of risk means that the actual amount of carbon sequestered may be lower than what is claimed on paper.

According to the research, the current protocols used to calculate and issue these credits do not sufficiently account for the escalating threat of climate-driven disturbances. This gap suggests that the carbon markets may not be accurately reflecting the actual climate threat to U.S. forests.

Broader Environmental Context

While some progress has been made in other areas of forest management—such as a decrease in deforestation in tropical rainforests in 2025—environmental risks remain high. Analysis of tropical forests indicates that policy, markets, and climate stress are increasingly interacting, meaning that protection efforts cannot operate in isolation from climate volatility.