War, Weather, and Trade Disputes Threaten Global Food Security

Convergence of Global Threats

Global food security is facing an accumulation of "modern dangers" as the world's primary agricultural regions, often referred to as breadbaskets, are impacted by a combination of war, extreme weather, and trade disputes. Wheat, a central component of the modern diet, is particularly vulnerable to these converging pressures.

These breadbasket regions—primarily located in the United States, Brazil, China, India, Ukraine, and Russia—possess the agricultural capacity to grow crops at scale and export them to meet a significant portion of global food demand. However, the stability of these regions is being undermined by geopolitical conflict and climate shocks.

Conflict and Trade Disruptions

The war in Ukraine has highlighted the fragility of the global food system, demonstrating how conflict and trade dependencies can push millions of people closer to hunger. In Ukraine, the eastern front is characterized by "scorched Earth" and the presence of kamikaze drones, which have caused visible destruction to the landscape.

Beyond Ukraine, conflict in the Persian Gulf is also impacting the food supply chain. While the region is not a primary breadbasket, instability there has sent shockwaves through global farming and fertilizer production. In the Strait of Hormuz, shipping operators have faced significant disruptions; during heighted conflict, some operators paid up to $2 million per ship to the Iranian military for guarantees of safe passage. Iran established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority in May to manage permissions for ships transiting the strait.

Climate Pressure and Crop Failures

Extreme weather events are increasingly contributing to the instability of food production. Historical data shows that the 1982-83 El Niño event caused maize yields in Southern Africa to drop by over 70% and U.S. maize yields to fall by nearly 30%.

More recent crises in 2022 further illustrate these vulnerabilities. During that year, drought affected half of the European continent, leading to below-average grain yields. Simultaneously, the United States suffered major agricultural losses due to drought, which forced some farmers to sell livestock to offset crop failures. In Pakistan, devastating floods caused a plummeting rice harvest.

These events are part of a broader trend of Earth's warming, which is characterized by hotter summers, wetter storms, and fiercer wildfires. Such changes in the natural world may trigger sweeping changes that are difficult or impossible to reverse.

Impact on Food Prices

The combination of bad harvests and attacks on critical trade passages threatens to drive global food prices higher. Because rice, wheat, corn, and soy make up nearly half of the daily calories in the average global diet, disruptions in the handful of regions that produce these crops at scale have immediate global implications.